Sunday, September 25, 2005

Iraqi Civil War, What's really at risk

Many believe this has already happened. But, let's talk about it for a minute anyway. Imagine Iraq splits into 3 autonomous governments. Kurds in the north, Sunni in the center, and Shiite in the south. Let's forget for a minute that Iraq's oil reserves are in the north and the south, but not in the center.

Ok, now we have our picture painted...what does it mean. Turkey borders Iraq to the north and would border our new Kurdish state. However, the Kurds in Turkey have been fighting for self rule for years, and the Turks have been vehemently apposed to a Kurdish state in Iraq. The threat to Turkey is that their own Kurds would demand independence or try to join with the new Kurdish state. At the very minimum Turkey would engage in a cold war to undermine the Kurds. More likely Turkey will invade and destroy the fledgling country.

Now let's look at the Shiites. Their natural ally is Iran. Iran may be considered the big winner in the Iraq war. To be sure Iranian influence in the Middle East is on the rise. Happily for them the United States has removed Sadaam, the Iranian's biggest enemy. The Shiite's in the South are already, and will continue to be, allied with Iran. The combination will be a more powerful Iran then we see now.

In the midst of all this we have the Sunnis. The Sunnis are leading the insurgency and will transition into civil war without skipping a beat. In fact the Sunnis already see their struggle as a civil war. So the Sunnis are and will fight the new Iranian client state and the other Sunni countries in the area will be forced into the conflict. Namely Saudi Arabia and others will have to support the Sunnis in order to counter the rise of Iran.

At the very least we will end up with a regional conflict. At the worst a world war. The disintegration of Iraq will mark the decline of American power, the rise of Iran, and the possibility of a global struggle over oil and power in the Middle East.

3 Comments:

Blogger Senihele said...

More to lend creedance to your thoughts: Men broke into an elementary school today and shot five teachers who were thought to be Shiites.

7:02 PM  
Blogger halcyon67 said...

It is already began. I read a story somewhere that someone broke into a home and drug out tortured and who had acid poured on them.

3:11 PM  
Blogger Ole Blue The Heretic said...

We stated back in the early nineties that this would occur and George I listened, but George II is an arrogant F%&* who thinks he hears the voice of god. Now look what is happening, civi war, destabilazation of political ties and ecomomies, and the ire of the ignorant superstitious people; which all makes for a good world war scenario.

12:52 PM  

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